What happened last time? › Economy
What happens when consumer sentiment is below 60?
It has happened 10 times since 1952. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 8 of 10 times, with a median move of +19.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Consumer sentiment below 60. This is true today (2026-09-25).
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -2.2% 40% up · n 10 · normal +1.1% | +19.6% 80% up · n 10 · normal +10.6% | +44.0% 88% up · n 8 · normal +27.6% |
| Gold | +1.9% 50% up · n 10 · normal 0.0% | +14.3% 70% up · n 10 · normal +2.9% | +63.7% 63% up · n 8 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | -2.8% 30% up · n 10 · normal 0.0% | +10.3% 80% up · n 10 · normal 0.0% | +17.5% 63% up · n 8 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.15 pts 20% up · n 10 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.50 pts 70% up · n 10 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.55 pts 38% up · n 8 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.17 pts 70% up · n 10 · normal -0.00 pts | -2.03 pts 20% up · n 10 · normal +0.02 pts | -1.38 pts 13% up · n 8 · normal -0.01 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.25 pts 80% up · n 10 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.90 pts 70% up · n 10 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.95 pts 88% up · n 8 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-08-29 · true for 270 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.4%
- 2025-03-28 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.1%
- 2023-05-26 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.1%
- 2022-03-25 · true for 191 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.6%
- 2011-08-26 · true for 44 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.9%
- 2009-02-27 · true for 44 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +50.3%
- 2008-10-31 · true for 36 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.0%
- 2008-05-30 · true for 39 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -34.4%
- 1980-03-28 · true for 83 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.7%
- 1974-11-29 · true for 123 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.4%
- 10 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about economy
- What happens when real GDP is smaller than a year ago?
- What happens when real GDP grows more than 5% in a year?
- What happens when industrial production is lower than a year ago?
- What happens when retail sales are lower than a year ago?
- What happens when housing starts fall 30% in a year?
- What happens when consumer sentiment is below 55?
- What happens when the money supply (M2) shrinks over a year?
- What happens when the money supply (M2) grows more than 10% in a year?