What happened last time? › Economy
What happens when industrial production is lower than a year ago?
It has happened 38 times since 1920. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 29 of 34 times, with a median move of +14.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.4%, up 69% of the time.
Industrial production below 0% a year. This is true today (2026-09-25).
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.9% 60% up · n 35 · normal +1.1% | +14.1% 85% up · n 34 · normal +9.4% | +30.2% 79% up · n 33 · normal +25.7% |
| Gold | +1.4% 62% up · n 21 · normal 0.0% | +8.5% 70% up · n 20 · normal +2.9% | +15.2% 63% up · n 19 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | -1.1% 24% up · n 21 · normal 0.0% | -0.3% 40% up · n 20 · normal 0.0% | +15.7% 58% up · n 19 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | 0.00 pts 48% up · n 25 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.20 pts 42% up · n 24 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.29 pts 43% up · n 23 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.32 pts 30% up · n 30 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.92 pts 22% up · n 37 · normal -0.01 pts | -1.82 pts 28% up · n 36 · normal -0.05 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 43% up · n 28 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.90 pts 56% up · n 27 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.75 pts 65% up · n 26 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-12-03 · true for 204 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2024-08-15 · true for 106 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.4%
- 2023-02-15 · true for 336 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.3%
- 2021-10-18 · true for 168 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.1%
- 2020-01-17 · true for 312 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.2%
- 2019-11-15 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.9%
- 2016-04-15 · true for 253 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.9%
- 2015-12-16 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.1%
- 2010-07-15 · true for 253 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.0%
- 2008-04-16 · true for 481 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -36.6%
- 2005-11-17 · true for 251 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.7%
- 2001-06-15 · true for 606 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.1%
- 1997-02-14 · true for 252 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.2%
- 1990-04-17 · true for 422 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.3%
- 1990-02-16 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.9%
- 1985-07-18 · true for 293 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.6%
- 1981-12-16 · true for 356 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.5%
- 1980-04-15 · true for 253 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.7%
- 1974-08-15 · true for 359 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.2%
- 1970-03-16 · true for 614 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 1967-07-14 · true for 107 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.4%
- 1960-01-15 · true for 376 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.1%
- 1957-11-15 · true for 271 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.5%
- 1956-08-15 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.6%
- 1953-12-01 · true for 283 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.2%
- 1952-04-29 · true for 132 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.1%
- 1952-02-29 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.3%
- 1949-03-25 · true for 335 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.9%
- 1944-09-26 · true for 593 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.1%
- 1937-11-26 · true for 326 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.1%
- 1935-06-25 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +46.9%
- 1934-07-27 · true for 124 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.5%
- 1929-12-23 · true for 1016 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -26.2%
- 1928-06-28 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +43.7%
- 1928-04-28 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.0%
- 1924-04-15 · true for 226 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1924-01-15 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1920-10-16 · true for 398 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 38 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about economy
- What happens when real GDP is smaller than a year ago?
- What happens when real GDP grows more than 5% in a year?
- What happens when retail sales are lower than a year ago?
- What happens when housing starts fall 30% in a year?
- What happens when consumer sentiment is below 60?
- What happens when consumer sentiment is below 55?
- What happens when the money supply (M2) shrinks over a year?
- What happens when the money supply (M2) grows more than 10% in a year?