What happened last time? › Economy
What happens when the money supply (M2) shrinks over a year?
It has happened 2 times since 1960. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 1 of 2 times, with a median move of +12.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 75% of the time.
M2 money supply below 0% a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.0% 50% up · n 2 · normal +1.1% | +12.2% 50% up · n 2 · normal +10.6% | +61.5% 100% up · n 2 · normal +27.8% |
| Gold | +7.7% 100% up · n 2 · normal 0.0% | +13.3% 100% up · n 2 · normal +2.9% | +83.4% 100% up · n 2 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | -1.0% 50% up · n 2 · normal 0.0% | -13.7% 0% up · n 2 · normal 0.0% | -4.3% 50% up · n 2 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.10 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.52 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal +0.06 pts | +0.47 pts 100% up · n 2 · normal -0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.26 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal -0.00 pts | -2.28 pts 0% up · n 2 · normal +0.04 pts | -2.31 pts 0% up · n 2 · normal +0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 0% up · n 2 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.25 pts 0% up · n 2 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.25 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-12-27 · true for 331 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.9%
- 1993-04-15 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.5%
- 2 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about economy
- What happens when real GDP is smaller than a year ago?
- What happens when real GDP grows more than 5% in a year?
- What happens when industrial production is lower than a year ago?
- What happens when retail sales are lower than a year ago?
- What happens when housing starts fall 30% in a year?
- What happens when consumer sentiment is below 60?
- What happens when consumer sentiment is below 55?
- What happens when the money supply (M2) grows more than 10% in a year?