What happened last time? › Economy
What happens when retail sales are lower than a year ago?
It has happened 4 times since 1993. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 4 of 4 times, with a median move of +18.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +12.4%, up 79% of the time.
Retail sales below 0% a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -2.7% 25% up · n 4 · normal +1.3% | +18.5% 100% up · n 4 · normal +12.4% | +35.7% 100% up · n 4 · normal +33.8% |
| Gold | +2.0% 75% up · n 4 · normal +0.3% | +16.1% 100% up · n 4 · normal +6.2% | +31.9% 100% up · n 4 · normal +23.2% |
| Oil | +2.4% 50% up · n 4 · normal +1.0% | +35.8% 100% up · n 4 · normal +5.9% | +84.7% 100% up · n 4 · normal +17.8% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.01 pts 50% up · n 4 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.26 pts 75% up · n 4 · normal -0.10 pts | +0.62 pts 75% up · n 4 · normal -0.35 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.05 pts 50% up · n 4 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.94 pts 75% up · n 4 · normal +0.01 pts | +2.76 pts 75% up · n 4 · normal -0.17 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.35 pts 75% up · n 4 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.95 pts 75% up · n 4 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.80 pts 25% up · n 4 · normal -0.90 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-04-15 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +49.8%
- 2015-12-11 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.3%
- 2008-10-15 · true for 314 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.8%
- 2002-11-14 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.2%
- 4 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about economy
- What happens when real GDP is smaller than a year ago?
- What happens when real GDP grows more than 5% in a year?
- What happens when industrial production is lower than a year ago?
- What happens when housing starts fall 30% in a year?
- What happens when consumer sentiment is below 60?
- What happens when consumer sentiment is below 55?
- What happens when the money supply (M2) shrinks over a year?
- What happens when the money supply (M2) grows more than 10% in a year?