What happened last time? › Economy
What happens when real GDP grows more than 5% in a year?
It has happened 24 times since 1948. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 16 of 24 times, with a median move of +2.9%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.7%, up 75% of the time.
Real GDP above 5% a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.9% 71% up · n 24 · normal +1.1% | +2.9% 67% up · n 24 · normal +10.7% | +28.9% 78% up · n 23 · normal +28.8% |
| Gold | +0.0% 53% up · n 19 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 47% up · n 19 · normal +2.9% | +17.7% 61% up · n 18 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | +0.8% 53% up · n 19 · normal 0.0% | +1.6% 53% up · n 19 · normal 0.0% | +11.8% 61% up · n 18 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.03 pts 52% up · n 21 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.26 pts 57% up · n 21 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.30 pts 60% up · n 20 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.02 pts 50% up · n 24 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.95 pts 75% up · n 24 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.45 pts 61% up · n 23 · normal -0.01 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 33% up · n 24 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.40 pts 13% up · n 24 · normal -0.20 pts | -0.50 pts 43% up · n 23 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2023-10-26 · true for 254 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +40.4%
- 2022-01-27 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.9%
- 2021-07-29 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.5%
- 2018-07-27 · true for 250 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.3%
- 2013-07-31 · true for 251 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.5%
- 2009-07-31 · true for 251 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.6%
- 2004-01-30 · true for 251 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.6%
- 1999-10-28 · true for 317 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.8%
- 1999-01-29 · true for 125 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.3%
- 1996-02-23 · true for 238 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.6%
- 1994-07-29 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.8%
- 1983-10-28 · true for 379 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.2%
- 1978-07-31 · true for 252 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.1%
- 1977-10-28 · true for 126 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.1%
- 1976-04-29 · true for 127 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.6%
- 1972-07-31 · true for 313 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.8%
- 1968-07-29 · true for 108 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.4%
- 1964-01-28 · true for 758 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.1%
- 1962-01-29 · true for 251 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.5%
- 1959-04-30 · true for 189 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.6%
- 1955-05-02 · true for 251 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.6%
- 1953-01-28 · true for 251 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.4%
- 1950-07-31 · true for 564 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.6%
- 1948-10-28 · true for 74 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.3%
- 24 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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- What happens when the money supply (M2) shrinks over a year?
- What happens when the money supply (M2) grows more than 10% in a year?