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What happens after jobless claims rise 30% in three months?
It has happened 14 times since 1967. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 10 of 14 times, with a median move of +7.0%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 75% of the time.
Jobless claims up more than 30% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.5% 50% up · n 14 · normal +1.1% | +7.0% 71% up · n 14 · normal +10.6% | +31.7% 86% up · n 14 · normal +29.7% |
| Gold | +1.1% 57% up · n 14 · normal +0.0% | +11.2% 86% up · n 14 · normal +6.5% | +63.6% 79% up · n 14 · normal +13.8% |
| Oil | -0.5% 14% up · n 14 · normal 0.0% | +2.8% 64% up · n 14 · normal +2.8% | +54.5% 71% up · n 14 · normal +18.4% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.02 pts 50% up · n 14 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.59 pts 71% up · n 14 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.12 pts 43% up · n 14 · normal -0.25 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.16 pts 57% up · n 14 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.64 pts 36% up · n 14 · normal +0.04 pts | -0.65 pts 36% up · n 14 · normal -0.25 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.20 pts 79% up · n 14 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.55 pts 57% up · n 14 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.80 pts 86% up · n 14 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2023-05-04 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.3%
- 2022-07-07 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.7%
- 2020-03-26 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +51.1%
- 2005-09-22 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.2%
- 2001-10-04 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -25.2%
- 1992-07-30 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.7%
- 1980-04-17 · true for 53 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.3%
- 1977-02-10 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.7%
- 1974-10-17 · true for 57 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.9%
- 1973-12-27 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -31.3%
- 1972-07-06 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.1%
- 1970-04-23 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.3%
- 1970-01-22 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.4%
- 1967-04-20 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.1%
- 14 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about jobs
- What happens when unemployment is above 6%?
- What happens when unemployment is above 8%?
- What happens when unemployment is above 10%?
- What happens when unemployment is below 4%?
- What happens after unemployment rises 1 point in a year?
- What happens after unemployment rises half a point in six months?
- What happens when the US has fewer jobs than a year ago?
- What happens when weekly jobless claims are above 400,000?