What happened last time? › Jobs
What happens when the US has fewer jobs than a year ago?
It has happened 14 times since 1940. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 11 of 13 times, with a median move of +18.4%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.2%, up 73% of the time.
Payrolls below 0% a year. This is true today (2026-09-25).
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.0% 64% up · n 14 · normal +1.1% | +18.4% 85% up · n 13 · normal +10.2% | +38.1% 92% up · n 13 · normal +28.0% |
| Gold | 0.0% 40% up · n 10 · normal 0.0% | +6.4% 56% up · n 9 · normal +2.9% | +18.7% 67% up · n 9 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 30% up · n 10 · normal 0.0% | +10.6% 56% up · n 9 · normal 0.0% | +22.1% 56% up · n 9 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.03 pts 58% up · n 12 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.10 pts 36% up · n 11 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.34 pts 64% up · n 11 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.41 pts 7% up · n 14 · normal 0.00 pts | -1.37 pts 8% up · n 13 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.04 pts 38% up · n 13 · normal -0.03 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.30 pts 67% up · n 9 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.65 pts 67% up · n 12 · normal -0.20 pts | -0.70 pts 25% up · n 12 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-01-09 · true for 179 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2020-05-08 · true for 251 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +44.5%
- 2008-06-06 · true for 672 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -30.9%
- 2001-11-02 · true for 607 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.1%
- 1991-02-01 · true for 509 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.2%
- 1982-02-05 · true for 379 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.6%
- 1975-12-05 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.4%
- 1975-03-07 · true for 146 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.6%
- 1970-08-07 · true for 233 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.0%
- 1961-01-13 · true for 138 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.8%
- 1958-01-14 · true for 309 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +36.8%
- 1954-01-05 · true for 276 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.5%
- 1949-02-05 · true for 356 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.6%
- 1944-04-05 · true for 631 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.1%
- 14 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about jobs
- What happens when unemployment is above 6%?
- What happens when unemployment is above 8%?
- What happens when unemployment is above 10%?
- What happens when unemployment is below 4%?
- What happens after unemployment rises 1 point in a year?
- What happens after unemployment rises half a point in six months?
- What happens after jobless claims rise 30% in three months?
- What happens when weekly jobless claims are above 400,000?