What happened last time? › Jobs
What happens after unemployment rises 1 point in a year?
It has happened 15 times since 1949. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 12 of 15 times, with a median move of +17.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.8%, up 75% of the time.
Unemployment rate up more than 1 points over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.8% 60% up · n 15 · normal +1.1% | +17.2% 80% up · n 15 · normal +10.8% | +25.6% 93% up · n 15 · normal +28.6% |
| Gold | -1.4% 27% up · n 11 · normal 0.0% | +2.4% 50% up · n 12 · normal +2.9% | +5.2% 58% up · n 12 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 45% up · n 11 · normal 0.0% | +2.8% 58% up · n 12 · normal 0.0% | -3.0% 50% up · n 12 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.06 pts 29% up · n 14 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.27 pts 36% up · n 14 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.03 pts 50% up · n 14 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.03 pts 33% up · n 15 · normal -0.00 pts | -1.15 pts 20% up · n 15 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.07 pts 33% up · n 15 · normal -0.03 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.15 pts 50% up · n 10 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.50 pts 67% up · n 15 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.20 pts 40% up · n 15 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-05-08 · true for 252 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +44.5%
- 2008-08-01 · true for 445 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.6%
- 2001-10-08 · true for 231 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -24.8%
- 1992-03-06 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +10.3%
- 1991-03-08 · true for 172 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.9%
- 1982-01-08 · true for 337 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.4%
- 1980-05-02 · true for 252 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.7%
- 1974-11-01 · true for 319 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.5%
- 1971-08-06 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.2%
- 1970-04-10 · true for 309 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.7%
- 1961-10-10 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.0%
- 1961-01-13 · true for 165 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.8%
- 1958-02-04 · true for 230 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.7%
- 1954-01-04 · true for 253 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +46.0%
- 1949-05-05 · true for 282 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.4%
- 15 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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- What happens when unemployment is above 6%?
- What happens when unemployment is above 8%?
- What happens when unemployment is above 10%?
- What happens when unemployment is below 4%?
- What happens after unemployment rises half a point in six months?
- What happens when the US has fewer jobs than a year ago?
- What happens after jobless claims rise 30% in three months?
- What happens when weekly jobless claims are above 400,000?