What happened last time? › Jobs
What happens when weekly jobless claims are above 400,000?
It has happened 28 times since 1967. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 21 of 28 times, with a median move of +13.4%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 75% of the time.
Jobless claims above 400000. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.0% 57% up · n 28 · normal +1.1% | +13.4% 75% up · n 28 · normal +10.6% | +40.6% 89% up · n 28 · normal +29.6% |
| Gold | -0.6% 43% up · n 28 · normal +0.0% | +9.3% 68% up · n 28 · normal +6.3% | +32.3% 68% up · n 28 · normal +13.5% |
| Oil | +1.4% 56% up · n 27 · normal 0.0% | +4.8% 54% up · n 28 · normal +2.5% | +11.7% 54% up · n 28 · normal +18.0% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.08 pts 46% up · n 28 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.24 pts 54% up · n 28 · normal +0.02 pts | -0.41 pts 46% up · n 28 · normal -0.24 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.17 pts 64% up · n 28 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.05 pts 50% up · n 28 · normal +0.04 pts | -0.02 pts 50% up · n 28 · normal -0.24 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.05 pts 50% up · n 28 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.20 pts 39% up · n 28 · normal -0.20 pts | -1.10 pts 39% up · n 28 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-03-26 · true for 314 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +51.1%
- 2012-11-15 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.9%
- 2011-04-14 · true for 126 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.2%
- 2008-07-24 · true for 642 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.8%
- 2005-09-15 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.5%
- 2002-09-12 · true for 206 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.9%
- 2002-03-28 · true for 48 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -24.7%
- 2001-05-03 · true for 132 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.0%
- 1996-03-28 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.3%
- 1996-01-25 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.9%
- 1994-02-03 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.4%
- 1993-07-29 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.8%
- 1990-10-04 · true for 499 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.9%
- 1989-10-12 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.6%
- 1986-08-07 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +36.3%
- 1985-08-08 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.4%
- 1985-06-13 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.6%
- 1985-04-11 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.0%
- 1985-02-14 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.5%
- 1984-08-23 · true for 50 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.0%
- 1979-10-11 · true for 971 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.0%
- 1979-08-09 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.2%
- 1979-04-12 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.8%
- 1978-02-23 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.6%
- 1976-09-09 · true for 72 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.7%
- 1976-06-03 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.4%
- 1976-01-15 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.7%
- 1974-10-17 · true for 276 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.9%
- 28 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about jobs
- What happens when unemployment is above 6%?
- What happens when unemployment is above 8%?
- What happens when unemployment is above 10%?
- What happens when unemployment is below 4%?
- What happens after unemployment rises 1 point in a year?
- What happens after unemployment rises half a point in six months?
- What happens when the US has fewer jobs than a year ago?
- What happens after jobless claims rise 30% in three months?