What happened last time? › Jobs
What happens after unemployment rises half a point in six months?
It has happened 22 times since 1948. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 15 of 22 times, with a median move of +14.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.7%, up 75% of the time.
Unemployment rate up more than 0.5 points over 6 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -0.2% 45% up · n 22 · normal +1.1% | +14.1% 68% up · n 22 · normal +10.7% | +27.2% 86% up · n 21 · normal +28.8% |
| Gold | 0.0% 47% up · n 17 · normal 0.0% | +6.4% 61% up · n 18 · normal +2.9% | +15.0% 71% up · n 17 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 18% up · n 17 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 44% up · n 18 · normal 0.0% | -5.9% 47% up · n 17 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.01 pts 52% up · n 21 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.13 pts 33% up · n 21 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.39 pts 35% up · n 20 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.03 pts 23% up · n 22 · normal -0.00 pts | -1.00 pts 23% up · n 22 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.40 pts 38% up · n 21 · normal -0.02 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.20 pts 69% up · n 13 · normal 0.00 pts | +1.40 pts 73% up · n 22 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.50 pts 62% up · n 21 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2024-08-02 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.7%
- 2020-04-03 · true for 151 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +61.5%
- 2008-06-06 · true for 377 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -30.9%
- 2001-09-07 · true for 184 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.7%
- 2001-05-04 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.3%
- 1992-06-05 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.8%
- 1992-04-03 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.9%
- 1990-12-07 · true for 188 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.7%
- 1981-11-06 · true for 354 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.9%
- 1980-05-02 · true for 146 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.7%
- 1976-12-03 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.9%
- 1974-10-04 · true for 213 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.9%
- 1970-05-08 · true for 229 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.5%
- 1970-03-06 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.6%
- 1969-10-06 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.0%
- 1967-11-08 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.6%
- 1961-06-12 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.8%
- 1960-09-06 · true for 151 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.2%
- 1959-12-03 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.7%
- 1957-10-07 · true for 250 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.0%
- 1953-12-03 · true for 210 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +38.1%
- 1949-02-04 · true for 231 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.6%
- 22 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about jobs
- What happens when unemployment is above 6%?
- What happens when unemployment is above 8%?
- What happens when unemployment is above 10%?
- What happens when unemployment is below 4%?
- What happens after unemployment rises 1 point in a year?
- What happens when the US has fewer jobs than a year ago?
- What happens after jobless claims rise 30% in three months?
- What happens when weekly jobless claims are above 400,000?