What happened last time? › Jobs
What happens when unemployment is above 6%?
It has happened 17 times since 1948. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 15 of 17 times, with a median move of +22.3%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 75% of the time.
Unemployment rate above 6. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.6% 59% up · n 17 · normal +1.1% | +22.3% 88% up · n 17 · normal +10.6% | +31.1% 76% up · n 17 · normal +28.9% |
| Gold | 0.0% 43% up · n 14 · normal 0.0% | +5.1% 64% up · n 14 · normal +2.9% | +10.4% 57% up · n 14 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 14% up · n 14 · normal 0.0% | +1.8% 57% up · n 14 · normal 0.0% | +14.0% 57% up · n 14 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.01 pts 50% up · n 16 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.54 pts 75% up · n 16 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.90 pts 69% up · n 16 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.17 pts 41% up · n 17 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.78 pts 41% up · n 17 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.59 pts 53% up · n 17 · normal -0.01 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.05 pts 50% up · n 14 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.50 pts 35% up · n 17 · normal -0.20 pts | -0.90 pts 41% up · n 17 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2021-05-07 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.6%
- 2020-05-08 · true for 227 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +44.5%
- 2008-09-05 · true for 1530 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.2%
- 2003-06-06 · true for 108 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.6%
- 1994-08-05 · true for 44 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.3%
- 1991-01-04 · true for 863 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.6%
- 1980-04-07 · true for 1855 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.7%
- 1980-02-01 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.5%
- 1974-12-06 · true for 905 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.5%
- 1972-01-07 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.9%
- 1971-09-03 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.7%
- 1971-05-07 · true for 39 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.7%
- 1963-03-07 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.0%
- 1960-11-10 · true for 306 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.9%
- 1958-03-07 · true for 229 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.6%
- 1954-10-05 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.7%
- 1949-06-06 · true for 258 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +36.6%
- 17 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about jobs
- What happens when unemployment is above 8%?
- What happens when unemployment is above 10%?
- What happens when unemployment is below 4%?
- What happens after unemployment rises 1 point in a year?
- What happens after unemployment rises half a point in six months?
- What happens when the US has fewer jobs than a year ago?
- What happens after jobless claims rise 30% in three months?
- What happens when weekly jobless claims are above 400,000?