What happened last time? › Jobs
What happens when unemployment is below 4%?
It has happened 15 times since 1948. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 7 of 15 times, with a median move of -3.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 75% of the time.
Unemployment rate below 4. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.3% 73% up · n 15 · normal +1.1% | -3.2% 47% up · n 15 · normal +10.6% | +22.1% 80% up · n 15 · normal +28.9% |
| Gold | -0.6% 29% up · n 7 · normal 0.0% | 0.0% 44% up · n 9 · normal +2.9% | +36.3% 100% up · n 9 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | +5.7% 57% up · n 7 · normal 0.0% | -7.1% 11% up · n 9 · normal 0.0% | -5.9% 22% up · n 9 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.02 pts 50% up · n 12 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.06 pts 50% up · n 12 · normal +0.09 pts | +0.86 pts 58% up · n 12 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.23 pts 67% up · n 15 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.25 pts 60% up · n 15 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.74 pts 47% up · n 15 · normal -0.01 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 29% up · n 14 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.30 pts 53% up · n 15 · normal -0.20 pts | +1.20 pts 73% up · n 15 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-01-07 · true for 587 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.7%
- 2019-03-08 · true for 271 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.4%
- 2018-05-04 · true for 167 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.6%
- 2000-10-06 · true for 44 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -24.0%
- 2000-05-05 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.6%
- 1969-11-07 · true for 81 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.3%
- 1967-12-13 · true for 427 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.6%
- 1966-08-08 · true for 277 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.3%
- 1966-03-08 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.1%
- 1957-03-07 · true for 61 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.8%
- 1956-10-05 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.9%
- 1956-03-06 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.9%
- 1951-02-05 · true for 776 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.6%
- 1948-05-05 · true for 182 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.2%
- 1948-02-04 · true for 49 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.4%
- 15 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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