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What happens after the euro falls 10% in a year?
It has happened 13 times since 2000. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 9 of 13 times, with a median move of +9.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.1%, up 75% of the time.
Euro in dollars down more than 10% over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.8% 54% up · n 13 · normal +1.2% | +9.2% 69% up · n 13 · normal +11.1% | +43.0% 69% up · n 13 · normal +30.7% |
| Gold | +1.1% 77% up · n 13 · normal +0.7% | +22.9% 77% up · n 13 · normal +10.8% | +24.1% 77% up · n 13 · normal +42.9% |
| Oil | +1.3% 54% up · n 13 · normal +1.2% | +9.3% 69% up · n 13 · normal +5.6% | +17.0% 69% up · n 13 · normal +16.5% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | 0.00 pts 46% up · n 13 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.25 pts 23% up · n 13 · normal -0.11 pts | -0.49 pts 15% up · n 13 · normal -0.25 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.31 pts 25% up · n 12 · normal 0.00 pts | -1.18 pts 46% up · n 13 · normal +0.03 pts | -0.42 pts 38% up · n 13 · normal -0.01 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 45% up · n 11 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.40 pts 23% up · n 13 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.60 pts 54% up · n 13 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-04-19 · true for 143 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.9%
- 2014-12-08 · true for 261 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.2%
- 2012-04-27 · true for 83 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.7%
- 2011-01-11 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.4%
- 2010-11-23 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.6%
- 2010-08-13 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.2%
- 2010-05-20 · true for 30 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.4%
- 2009-01-13 · true for 119 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.4%
- 2008-10-24 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.1%
- 2006-02-22 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.7%
- 2005-11-14 · true for 27 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.9%
- 2001-06-04 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.9%
- 2000-01-04 · true for 211 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.7%
- 13 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about currencies
- What happens after the US dollar rises 10% in a year?
- What happens after the US dollar falls 10% in a year?
- What happens after the yen falls 20% against the dollar in a year?
- What happens after the yen rises 15% against the dollar in a year?
- What happens when the euro falls below one dollar?
- What happens after the pound falls 10% in three months?