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What happens after the yen falls 20% against the dollar in a year?
It has happened 11 times since 1972. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 8 of 11 times, with a median move of +18.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.1%, up 76% of the time.
Yen per dollar up more than 20% over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.3% 55% up · n 11 · normal +1.1% | +18.5% 73% up · n 11 · normal +11.1% | +28.9% 91% up · n 11 · normal +31.8% |
| Gold | -1.0% 45% up · n 11 · normal +0.2% | -4.2% 45% up · n 11 · normal +5.8% | -9.3% 36% up · n 11 · normal +13.1% |
| Oil | +4.0% 64% up · n 11 · normal 0.0% | -3.6% 36% up · n 11 · normal +3.4% | -7.6% 45% up · n 11 · normal +14.5% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.05 pts 55% up · n 11 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.38 pts 64% up · n 11 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.07 pts 27% up · n 11 · normal -0.32 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.15 pts 36% up · n 11 · normal -0.00 pts | -0.24 pts 45% up · n 11 · normal +0.04 pts | -1.04 pts 27% up · n 11 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.05 pts 50% up · n 10 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.20 pts 27% up · n 11 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.10 pts 45% up · n 11 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-04-28 · true for 133 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.8%
- 2015-05-26 · true for 56 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.6%
- 2013-04-08 · true for 188 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.5%
- 2013-02-01 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.8%
- 2001-04-02 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -0.8%
- 1998-05-28 · true for 59 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.6%
- 1997-04-28 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +40.4%
- 1996-03-21 · true for 88 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.8%
- 1990-04-03 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.3%
- 1982-10-05 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.5%
- 1979-10-10 · true for 103 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.4%
- 11 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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