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What happens after the US dollar falls 10% in a year?
It has happened 13 times since 1974. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 11 of 13 times, with a median move of +14.0%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.7%, up 78% of the time.
US dollar, broad index down more than 10% over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.2% 54% up · n 13 · normal +1.2% | +14.0% 85% up · n 13 · normal +11.7% | +33.8% 92% up · n 13 · normal +32.9% |
| Gold | -0.8% 38% up · n 13 · normal +0.1% | +8.8% 77% up · n 13 · normal +4.6% | +28.5% 69% up · n 13 · normal +11.9% |
| Oil | -0.6% 38% up · n 13 · normal 0.0% | +2.0% 62% up · n 13 · normal +2.1% | +16.3% 69% up · n 13 · normal +11.6% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.06 pts 38% up · n 13 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.19 pts 46% up · n 13 · normal -0.09 pts | -0.43 pts 46% up · n 13 · normal -0.39 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.22 pts 77% up · n 13 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.28 pts 38% up · n 13 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.86 pts 62% up · n 13 · normal -0.33 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 23% up · n 13 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.60 pts 23% up · n 13 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.40 pts 23% up · n 13 · normal -0.80 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2021-05-11 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.2%
- 2021-03-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +14.0%
- 2011-05-25 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.0%
- 2010-02-26 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.5%
- 2009-11-13 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.7%
- 2008-02-27 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -45.4%
- 2003-10-01 · true for 147 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.5%
- 2003-01-31 · true for 125 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.2%
- 1995-05-01 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.2%
- 1990-10-01 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.6%
- 1987-12-01 · true for 84 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.0%
- 1985-12-31 · true for 400 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.6%
- 1978-08-31 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.8%
- 13 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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