What happened last time? › Currencies
What happens after the yen rises 15% against the dollar in a year?
It has happened 22 times since 1972. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 14 of 22 times, with a median move of +8.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.1%, up 76% of the time.
Yen per dollar down more than 15% over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.8% 59% up · n 22 · normal +1.1% | +8.6% 64% up · n 22 · normal +11.1% | +27.4% 64% up · n 22 · normal +31.8% |
| Gold | +0.7% 55% up · n 22 · normal +0.2% | +6.6% 59% up · n 22 · normal +5.8% | +21.0% 77% up · n 22 · normal +13.1% |
| Oil | 0.0% 36% up · n 22 · normal 0.0% | -0.7% 50% up · n 22 · normal +3.4% | +11.8% 59% up · n 22 · normal +14.5% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.02 pts 55% up · n 22 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.34 pts 55% up · n 22 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.58 pts 32% up · n 22 · normal -0.32 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.05 pts 55% up · n 22 · normal -0.00 pts | +0.05 pts 50% up · n 22 · normal +0.04 pts | -0.33 pts 45% up · n 22 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.05 pts 50% up · n 22 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.15 pts 41% up · n 22 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.75 pts 55% up · n 22 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2016-11-03 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.9%
- 2016-06-16 · true for 56 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.1%
- 2011-05-05 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +2.5%
- 2009-09-02 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.6%
- 2008-12-01 · true for 44 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.9%
- 2008-10-10 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.2%
- 2008-05-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -35.5%
- 2008-03-17 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -39.0%
- 1999-11-26 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.3%
- 1999-06-09 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.8%
- 1999-01-04 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.0%
- 1995-03-15 · true for 69 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.3%
- 1993-04-01 · true for 74 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.0%
- 1991-04-15 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.2%
- 1987-11-02 · true for 100 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.1%
- 1985-11-06 · true for 373 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.6%
- 1983-10-06 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.5%
- 1980-12-30 · true for 59 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.6%
- 1977-10-31 · true for 334 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.9%
- 1973-03-13 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.9%
- 1972-06-20 · true for 50 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.8%
- 1972-02-18 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.2%
- 22 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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