What happened last time? › Currencies
What happens when the euro falls below one dollar?
It has happened 2 times since 1999. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 1 of 2 times, with a median move of +1.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.9%, up 76% of the time.
Euro in dollars below 1. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -6.5% 0% up · n 2 · normal +1.2% | +1.5% 50% up · n 2 · normal +10.9% | +7.8% 50% up · n 2 · normal +29.8% |
| Gold | -0.8% 50% up · n 2 · normal +0.6% | +0.5% 50% up · n 2 · normal +10.1% | +60.4% 100% up · n 2 · normal +41.0% |
| Oil | +0.4% 50% up · n 2 · normal +1.4% | +1.0% 50% up · n 2 · normal +6.8% | -1.2% 50% up · n 2 · normal +18.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.08 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.04 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal -0.09 pts | -0.72 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.10 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal +0.03 pts | -2.32 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal +0.09 pts | -3.06 pts 0% up · n 2 · normal -0.13 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.05 pts 50% up · n 2 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.05 pts 0% up · n 2 · normal -0.20 pts | +1.30 pts 100% up · n 2 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-08-22 · true for 46 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.0%
- 2000-01-27 · true for 700 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.1%
- 2 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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- What happens after the euro falls 10% in a year?
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