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What happens after the US dollar rises 10% in a year?
It has happened 10 times since 1974. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 7 of 10 times, with a median move of +15.9%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.7%, up 78% of the time.
US dollar, broad index up more than 10% over a year. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -0.4% 50% up · n 10 · normal +1.2% | +15.9% 70% up · n 10 · normal +11.7% | +46.2% 90% up · n 10 · normal +32.9% |
| Gold | +1.0% 60% up · n 10 · normal +0.1% | +7.0% 60% up · n 10 · normal +4.6% | +23.8% 60% up · n 10 · normal +11.9% |
| Oil | -1.8% 30% up · n 10 · normal 0.0% | -7.1% 20% up · n 10 · normal +2.1% | -21.0% 20% up · n 10 · normal +11.6% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.26 pts 40% up · n 10 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.14 pts 40% up · n 10 · normal -0.09 pts | -1.31 pts 30% up · n 10 · normal -0.39 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.34 pts 0% up · n 10 · normal -0.01 pts | -2.11 pts 10% up · n 10 · normal -0.01 pts | -1.34 pts 30% up · n 10 · normal -0.33 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.05 pts 50% up · n 10 · normal 0.00 pts | 0.00 pts 50% up · n 10 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.45 pts 30% up · n 10 · normal -0.80 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-09-01 · true for 45 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.8%
- 2015-01-05 · true for 255 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.2%
- 2012-07-25 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +26.3%
- 2008-10-22 · true for 168 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.9%
- 2000-10-31 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -25.9%
- 1985-01-31 · true for 104 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.9%
- 1984-10-30 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.9%
- 1982-10-01 · true for 84 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +36.2%
- 1982-02-01 · true for 83 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.4%
- 1981-07-01 · true for 127 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.2%
- 10 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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