What happened last time? › Currencies
What happens after the pound falls 10% in three months?
It has happened 19 times since 1971. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 14 of 19 times, with a median move of +8.4%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +11.1%, up 76% of the time.
Pound in dollars down more than 10% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -0.5% 47% up · n 19 · normal +1.1% | +8.4% 74% up · n 19 · normal +11.1% | +39.4% 84% up · n 19 · normal +31.4% |
| Gold | +0.0% 53% up · n 19 · normal +0.2% | +10.4% 63% up · n 19 · normal +6.1% | +25.2% 79% up · n 19 · normal +13.9% |
| Oil | 0.0% 47% up · n 19 · normal 0.0% | +3.1% 53% up · n 19 · normal +3.9% | -5.1% 42% up · n 19 · normal +15.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.01 pts 53% up · n 19 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.05 pts 53% up · n 19 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.11 pts 42% up · n 19 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.02 pts 37% up · n 19 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.65 pts 32% up · n 19 · normal +0.03 pts | -0.53 pts 32% up · n 19 · normal -0.25 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 24% up · n 17 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.20 pts 37% up · n 19 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.20 pts 42% up · n 19 · normal -0.70 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-09-23 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.0%
- 2022-05-12 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +4.9%
- 2020-03-18 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +63.3%
- 2016-07-26 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.2%
- 2010-03-02 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +17.0%
- 2008-09-05 · true for 90 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.2%
- 1993-03-09 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +2.8%
- 1992-10-02 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.4%
- 1991-04-19 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.3%
- 1989-05-22 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.3%
- 1988-07-15 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.0%
- 1985-02-01 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.6%
- 1984-09-18 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.4%
- 1983-03-29 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +5.5%
- 1981-04-15 · true for 79 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.3%
- 1976-10-25 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.1%
- 1976-04-23 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.8%
- 1975-08-07 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +20.3%
- 1974-01-15 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -23.4%
- 19 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about currencies
- What happens after the US dollar rises 10% in a year?
- What happens after the US dollar falls 10% in a year?
- What happens after the yen falls 20% against the dollar in a year?
- What happens after the yen rises 15% against the dollar in a year?
- What happens when the euro falls below one dollar?
- What happens after the euro falls 10% in a year?