What happened last time? › Sectors
What happens after bank and real estate stocks fall 20% from their high?
It has happened 32 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 23 of 32 times, with a median move of +15.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Finance and real estate more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +3.6% 75% up · n 32 · normal +1.1% | +15.1% 72% up · n 32 · normal +10.6% | +32.5% 84% up · n 32 · normal +30.1% |
| Gold | -0.8% 47% up · n 32 · normal +0.1% | +4.6% 59% up · n 32 · normal +5.9% | +15.3% 75% up · n 32 · normal +14.5% |
| Oil | 0.0% 47% up · n 32 · normal 0.0% | +12.7% 66% up · n 32 · normal +3.0% | +45.2% 75% up · n 32 · normal +19.6% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.08 pts 38% up · n 32 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.25 pts 47% up · n 32 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.33 pts 38% up · n 32 · normal -0.27 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.07 pts 53% up · n 32 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.08 pts 56% up · n 32 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.56 pts 38% up · n 32 · normal -0.26 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 47% up · n 32 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.45 pts 66% up · n 32 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.60 pts 59% up · n 32 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-09-23 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.0%
- 2022-06-13 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 2020-09-21 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.7%
- 2020-03-09 · true for 76 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.1%
- 2018-12-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.3%
- 2016-02-08 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.7%
- 2011-08-08 · true for 91 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 2010-08-23 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.9%
- 2010-07-01 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.4%
- 2008-01-02 · true for 438 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -37.6%
- 2007-11-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -46.9%
- 2003-02-06 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +36.3%
- 2002-09-19 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.9%
- 2002-07-22 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.5%
- 2001-09-20 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.1%
- 2000-02-18 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.3%
- 1999-10-15 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.2%
- 1998-08-27 · true for 44 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.3%
- 1990-07-31 · true for 123 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.9%
- 1990-04-06 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.4%
- 1990-01-30 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +5.6%
- 1987-10-19 · true for 147 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 1980-03-27 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +37.1%
- 1975-09-17 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.9%
- 1974-04-08 · true for 231 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.0%
- 1973-11-19 · true for 35 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -32.3%
- 1973-08-20 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -26.2%
- 1973-04-27 · true for 45 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.9%
- 1970-10-26 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.7%
- 1970-04-24 · true for 85 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.7%
- 1970-01-26 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.4%
- 1969-07-10 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.9%
- 32 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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