What happened last time? › Sectors
What happens after consumer goods stocks rise 30% in six months?
It has happened 22 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 14 of 22 times, with a median move of +7.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Consumer goods up more than 30% over 6 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.5% 59% up · n 22 · normal +1.1% | +7.1% 64% up · n 22 · normal +10.6% | +24.5% 91% up · n 22 · normal +30.3% |
| Gold | -0.5% 36% up · n 22 · normal +0.1% | +3.5% 55% up · n 22 · normal +5.8% | -1.3% 45% up · n 22 · normal +14.9% |
| Oil | +4.0% 59% up · n 22 · normal 0.0% | +10.8% 68% up · n 22 · normal +3.3% | +20.4% 64% up · n 22 · normal +19.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.01 pts 50% up · n 22 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.04 pts 55% up · n 22 · normal -0.03 pts | +0.12 pts 55% up · n 22 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.06 pts 45% up · n 22 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.30 pts 55% up · n 22 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.34 pts 59% up · n 22 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 41% up · n 22 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.55 pts 27% up · n 22 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.65 pts 14% up · n 22 · normal -0.60 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2021-04-28 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.5%
- 2020-09-09 · true for 120 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.2%
- 2013-05-15 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.8%
- 2012-04-02 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +10.7%
- 2012-02-16 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.9%
- 2011-02-11 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.0%
- 2010-12-30 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.0%
- 2009-07-21 · true for 108 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.0%
- 2009-05-20 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.6%
- 2007-01-12 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.1%
- 2002-03-18 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -25.7%
- 1991-03-25 · true for 65 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.6%
- 1987-06-17 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -11.5%
- 1987-03-12 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.0%
- 1986-03-07 · true for 85 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.9%
- 1982-11-03 · true for 170 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.4%
- 1981-06-15 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -17.9%
- 1980-09-15 · true for 47 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.7%
- 1978-08-23 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.5%
- 1976-02-04 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.1%
- 1975-03-11 · true for 97 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.7%
- 1970-12-23 · true for 87 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.8%
- 22 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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