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What happens after energy stocks fall 20% from their high?
It has happened 23 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 16 of 23 times, with a median move of +15.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Energy more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.4% 70% up · n 23 · normal +1.1% | +15.2% 70% up · n 23 · normal +10.6% | +36.0% 91% up · n 23 · normal +30.1% |
| Gold | 0.0% 48% up · n 23 · normal +0.1% | +4.1% 52% up · n 23 · normal +5.9% | +29.9% 65% up · n 23 · normal +14.5% |
| Oil | 0.0% 39% up · n 23 · normal 0.0% | +1.1% 52% up · n 23 · normal +3.0% | +38.5% 57% up · n 23 · normal +19.6% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.15 pts 39% up · n 23 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.04 pts 52% up · n 23 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.23 pts 43% up · n 23 · normal -0.27 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.02 pts 41% up · n 22 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.92 pts 22% up · n 23 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.11 pts 39% up · n 23 · normal -0.26 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 36% up · n 22 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.10 pts 57% up · n 23 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.50 pts 57% up · n 23 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-09-23 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.0%
- 2022-06-17 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.0%
- 2020-01-31 · true for 242 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 2019-05-13 · true for 97 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.1%
- 2018-12-14 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.9%
- 2017-08-17 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.3%
- 2014-11-28 · true for 295 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.1%
- 2014-10-13 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.9%
- 2011-11-25 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +21.6%
- 2011-08-08 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 2008-08-04 · true for 267 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.5%
- 2003-01-21 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.3%
- 2002-07-19 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.2%
- 2001-11-15 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -20.3%
- 2001-09-19 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.0%
- 1999-01-28 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.5%
- 1998-08-04 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.8%
- 1987-10-19 · true for 76 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 1981-02-02 · true for 430 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.0%
- 1980-03-26 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +38.1%
- 1974-04-24 · true for 173 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.7%
- 1969-09-17 · true for 234 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.2%
- 1969-07-28 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.8%
- 23 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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