What happened last time? › Sectors
What happens after food and tobacco stocks fall 20% from their high?
It has happened 10 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 9 of 10 times, with a median move of +17.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Food, farming and tobacco more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.9% 70% up · n 10 · normal +1.1% | +17.5% 90% up · n 10 · normal +10.6% | +40.0% 90% up · n 10 · normal +30.1% |
| Gold | -3.3% 20% up · n 10 · normal +0.1% | +7.8% 70% up · n 10 · normal +5.9% | +21.2% 70% up · n 10 · normal +14.5% |
| Oil | 0.0% 30% up · n 10 · normal 0.0% | +14.9% 70% up · n 10 · normal +3.0% | +93.6% 90% up · n 10 · normal +19.6% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.04 pts 30% up · n 10 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.06 pts 50% up · n 10 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.46 pts 30% up · n 10 · normal -0.27 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.02 pts 44% up · n 9 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.20 pts 40% up · n 10 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.12 pts 50% up · n 10 · normal -0.26 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.15 pts 60% up · n 10 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.90 pts 60% up · n 10 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.50 pts 70% up · n 10 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-03-12 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +59.0%
- 2008-10-09 · true for 138 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.8%
- 2003-01-29 · true for 69 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.2%
- 2002-07-19 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.2%
- 1999-09-17 · true for 142 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.8%
- 1988-03-28 · true for 30 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.0%
- 1987-10-19 · true for 87 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 1974-05-17 · true for 156 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.5%
- 1973-11-26 · true for 46 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.1%
- 1970-05-21 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +40.0%
- 10 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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