What happened last time? › Sectors
What happens after bank and real estate stocks rise 30% in six months?
It has happened 31 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 24 of 31 times, with a median move of +10.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Finance and real estate up more than 30% over 6 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.3% 55% up · n 31 · normal +1.1% | +10.6% 77% up · n 31 · normal +10.6% | +26.1% 84% up · n 31 · normal +30.3% |
| Gold | -0.5% 29% up · n 31 · normal +0.1% | +0.9% 55% up · n 31 · normal +5.8% | +6.8% 65% up · n 31 · normal +14.9% |
| Oil | 0.0% 39% up · n 31 · normal 0.0% | +8.3% 61% up · n 31 · normal +3.3% | +22.1% 65% up · n 31 · normal +19.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.07 pts 42% up · n 31 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.36 pts 52% up · n 31 · normal -0.03 pts | +0.39 pts 58% up · n 31 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.07 pts 33% up · n 30 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.61 pts 42% up · n 31 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.22 pts 52% up · n 31 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 39% up · n 31 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.40 pts 13% up · n 31 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.40 pts 19% up · n 31 · normal -0.60 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2021-02-24 · true for 61 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.3%
- 2021-01-06 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.3%
- 2020-11-11 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +30.1%
- 2020-09-16 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.1%
- 2016-12-23 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.5%
- 2013-05-15 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.8%
- 2012-03-21 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.2%
- 2010-01-06 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.0%
- 2009-07-21 · true for 68 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.0%
- 2003-09-08 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.7%
- 2000-08-18 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -22.1%
- 1999-03-05 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.5%
- 1997-09-29 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.0%
- 1997-01-14 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.6%
- 1993-03-10 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.7%
- 1991-03-25 · true for 73 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.6%
- 1986-02-21 · true for 49 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.1%
- 1985-05-20 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.5%
- 1985-01-17 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.1%
- 1983-06-15 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.0%
- 1982-11-09 · true for 111 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.6%
- 1981-06-11 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.8%
- 1980-09-10 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.7%
- 1978-08-17 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.1%
- 1976-03-31 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -4.2%
- 1975-05-20 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.3%
- 1975-02-21 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.6%
- 1971-04-19 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.5%
- 1971-01-05 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.3%
- 1968-09-03 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.4%
- 1968-07-03 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -1.3%
- 31 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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