What happened last time? › Sectors
What happens after chemicals and pharma stocks rise 30% in six months?
It has happened 15 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 12 of 15 times, with a median move of +10.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Chemicals and pharma up more than 30% over 6 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.4% 80% up · n 15 · normal +1.1% | +10.6% 80% up · n 15 · normal +10.6% | +25.6% 80% up · n 15 · normal +30.3% |
| Gold | -0.8% 40% up · n 15 · normal +0.1% | -5.3% 33% up · n 15 · normal +5.8% | +2.9% 53% up · n 15 · normal +14.9% |
| Oil | 0.0% 40% up · n 15 · normal 0.0% | +3.4% 60% up · n 15 · normal +3.3% | +31.4% 73% up · n 15 · normal +19.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.11 pts 33% up · n 15 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.02 pts 53% up · n 15 · normal -0.03 pts | +0.20 pts 60% up · n 15 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.26 pts 33% up · n 15 · normal -0.01 pts | -1.87 pts 33% up · n 15 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.78 pts 53% up · n 15 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 36% up · n 14 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.50 pts 20% up · n 15 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.00 pts 20% up · n 15 · normal -0.60 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-09-14 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.3%
- 2009-08-28 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.5%
- 1999-04-08 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.8%
- 1997-10-10 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.8%
- 1997-07-03 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +25.0%
- 1991-07-15 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.2%
- 1991-03-25 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.6%
- 1987-03-10 · true for 48 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.5%
- 1986-03-07 · true for 98 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.9%
- 1982-12-06 · true for 33 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.7%
- 1980-09-15 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.7%
- 1975-05-19 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.9%
- 1975-03-13 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.4%
- 1972-05-23 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.2%
- 1971-02-08 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.5%
- 15 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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