What happened last time? › Sectors
What happens after energy stocks rise 30% in six months?
It has happened 33 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 21 of 33 times, with a median move of +5.8%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Energy up more than 30% over 6 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.1% 61% up · n 33 · normal +1.1% | +5.8% 64% up · n 33 · normal +10.6% | +30.2% 82% up · n 33 · normal +30.3% |
| Gold | +1.2% 52% up · n 33 · normal +0.1% | +6.7% 55% up · n 33 · normal +5.8% | +7.7% 61% up · n 33 · normal +14.9% |
| Oil | 0.0% 42% up · n 33 · normal 0.0% | +3.4% 61% up · n 33 · normal +3.3% | +12.0% 61% up · n 33 · normal +19.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.07 pts 64% up · n 33 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.58 pts 67% up · n 33 · normal -0.03 pts | -0.14 pts 42% up · n 33 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.05 pts 34% up · n 32 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.67 pts 64% up · n 33 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.03 pts 48% up · n 33 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.05 pts 31% up · n 32 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.40 pts 18% up · n 33 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.70 pts 42% up · n 33 · normal -0.60 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2023-01-11 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.4%
- 2022-08-24 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.7%
- 2022-01-12 · true for 116 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.7%
- 2021-10-19 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.2%
- 2021-02-17 · true for 102 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.4%
- 2020-09-16 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.1%
- 2016-07-19 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.3%
- 2012-04-02 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +10.7%
- 2010-12-28 · true for 83 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.7%
- 2010-01-06 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.0%
- 2009-10-19 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.2%
- 2007-07-11 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.5%
- 2005-07-05 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.5%
- 2005-02-10 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.8%
- 2000-08-25 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -21.3%
- 1999-08-05 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.4%
- 1997-10-02 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.4%
- 1988-06-03 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +22.2%
- 1988-04-18 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +18.1%
- 1987-08-31 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -20.4%
- 1987-03-17 · true for 80 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.1%
- 1987-01-12 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.7%
- 1983-08-23 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.6%
- 1983-05-24 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.5%
- 1983-02-07 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.0%
- 1980-09-22 · true for 69 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.5%
- 1980-06-25 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.8%
- 1979-11-12 · true for 63 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.8%
- 1979-08-27 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.4%
- 1976-06-21 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -3.4%
- 1975-06-02 · true for 37 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.9%
- 1973-01-11 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -22.1%
- 1970-11-03 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.7%
- 33 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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