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What happens after consumer goods stocks fall 20% from their high?
It has happened 20 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 14 of 20 times, with a median move of +23.8%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Consumer goods more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +6.6% 75% up · n 20 · normal +1.1% | +23.8% 70% up · n 20 · normal +10.6% | +39.6% 85% up · n 20 · normal +30.1% |
| Gold | -0.9% 45% up · n 20 · normal +0.1% | -2.7% 45% up · n 20 · normal +5.9% | +19.5% 65% up · n 20 · normal +14.5% |
| Oil | +2.2% 50% up · n 20 · normal 0.0% | +11.8% 65% up · n 20 · normal +3.0% | +44.7% 80% up · n 20 · normal +19.6% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.02 pts 55% up · n 20 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.26 pts 45% up · n 20 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.48 pts 35% up · n 20 · normal -0.27 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.12 pts 65% up · n 20 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.01 pts 50% up · n 20 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.26 pts 45% up · n 20 · normal -0.26 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 35% up · n 17 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.10 pts 50% up · n 20 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.35 pts 55% up · n 20 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-03-07 · true for 192 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.1%
- 2020-03-09 · true for 54 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.1%
- 2018-12-19 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.9%
- 2011-10-03 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +31.5%
- 2011-08-08 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 2010-07-06 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +30.3%
- 2007-11-26 · true for 406 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -39.1%
- 2003-01-30 · true for 34 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.9%
- 2002-09-23 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.4%
- 2002-07-19 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.2%
- 2001-09-20 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.1%
- 1999-10-15 · true for 174 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.2%
- 1998-08-27 · true for 114 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.3%
- 1990-08-06 · true for 92 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.8%
- 1988-07-27 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.3%
- 1987-10-19 · true for 148 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 1980-03-27 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +37.1%
- 1973-02-02 · true for 501 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.6%
- 1969-11-24 · true for 235 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.1%
- 1969-07-22 · true for 54 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.6%
- 20 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about sectors
- What happens after chemicals and pharma stocks fall 20% from their high?
- What happens after chemicals and pharma stocks rise 30% in six months?
- What happens after consumer goods stocks rise 30% in six months?
- What happens after energy stocks fall 20% from their high?
- What happens after energy stocks rise 30% in six months?
- What happens after bank and real estate stocks fall 20% from their high?
- What happens after bank and real estate stocks rise 30% in six months?
- What happens after food and tobacco stocks fall 20% from their high?