What happened last time? › Sectors
What happens after food and tobacco stocks rise 30% in six months?
It has happened 14 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 10 of 14 times, with a median move of +10.3%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Food, farming and tobacco up more than 30% over 6 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.8% 71% up · n 14 · normal +1.1% | +10.3% 71% up · n 14 · normal +10.6% | +26.6% 79% up · n 14 · normal +30.3% |
| Gold | -1.0% 43% up · n 14 · normal +0.1% | -0.6% 43% up · n 14 · normal +5.8% | +1.5% 50% up · n 14 · normal +14.9% |
| Oil | -0.7% 21% up · n 14 · normal 0.0% | -2.6% 43% up · n 14 · normal +3.3% | +0.3% 57% up · n 14 · normal +19.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.01 pts 50% up · n 14 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.27 pts 43% up · n 14 · normal -0.03 pts | -0.90 pts 43% up · n 14 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.26 pts 31% up · n 13 · normal -0.01 pts | -1.40 pts 36% up · n 14 · normal -0.01 pts | -1.45 pts 36% up · n 14 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 38% up · n 13 · normal 0.00 pts | 0.00 pts 43% up · n 14 · normal -0.30 pts | -0.90 pts 43% up · n 14 · normal -0.60 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-09-18 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.5%
- 2009-09-03 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.1%
- 2000-10-27 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.9%
- 2000-09-08 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -27.3%
- 1991-07-15 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.2%
- 1991-02-19 · true for 52 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.5%
- 1989-05-15 · true for 49 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.1%
- 1989-01-20 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.3%
- 1987-03-13 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.6%
- 1986-02-27 · true for 127 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.3%
- 1982-12-03 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.3%
- 1980-09-05 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.9%
- 1975-03-05 · true for 87 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.9%
- 1971-02-11 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.3%
- 14 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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