What happened last time? › Sectors
What happens after industrial and transport stocks fall 20% from their high?
It has happened 29 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 17 of 29 times, with a median move of +10.2%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Industrials and transport more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.6% 62% up · n 29 · normal +1.1% | +10.2% 59% up · n 29 · normal +10.6% | +36.0% 76% up · n 29 · normal +30.1% |
| Gold | -1.5% 41% up · n 29 · normal +0.1% | +0.5% 52% up · n 29 · normal +5.9% | +25.0% 66% up · n 29 · normal +14.5% |
| Oil | 0.0% 45% up · n 29 · normal 0.0% | -3.2% 48% up · n 29 · normal +3.0% | +19.8% 59% up · n 29 · normal +19.6% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.02 pts 45% up · n 29 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.36 pts 41% up · n 29 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.55 pts 31% up · n 29 · normal -0.27 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.04 pts 52% up · n 27 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.38 pts 34% up · n 29 · normal +0.01 pts | -1.60 pts 28% up · n 29 · normal -0.26 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 41% up · n 29 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.50 pts 59% up · n 29 · normal -0.30 pts | +1.30 pts 72% up · n 29 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2023-03-09 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.8%
- 2022-08-31 · true for 97 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.0%
- 2022-05-09 · true for 55 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.2%
- 2020-03-09 · true for 61 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.1%
- 2018-12-21 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.3%
- 2016-01-13 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.1%
- 2011-11-23 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.7%
- 2011-08-08 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 2008-09-17 · true for 244 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.9%
- 2008-06-26 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.4%
- 2008-03-10 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -43.5%
- 2008-01-17 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -36.2%
- 2002-07-22 · true for 148 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.5%
- 2001-09-17 · true for 40 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.9%
- 2000-06-22 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.6%
- 2000-01-28 · true for 35 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.4%
- 1999-10-15 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.2%
- 1998-08-27 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.3%
- 1990-08-17 · true for 105 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.6%
- 1988-08-22 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.8%
- 1987-10-19 · true for 141 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 1982-01-06 · true for 155 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.9%
- 1981-09-18 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.4%
- 1980-03-27 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.1%
- 1974-04-25 · true for 185 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.3%
- 1973-11-01 · true for 76 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -31.4%
- 1973-05-14 · true for 91 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.4%
- 1969-11-24 · true for 178 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.1%
- 1969-07-14 · true for 59 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.3%
- 29 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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