What happened last time? › Sectors
What happens after industrial and transport stocks rise 30% in six months?
It has happened 23 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 21 of 23 times, with a median move of +11.9%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Industrials and transport up more than 30% over 6 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.3% 57% up · n 23 · normal +1.1% | +11.9% 91% up · n 23 · normal +10.6% | +29.4% 86% up · n 22 · normal +30.3% |
| Gold | 0.0% 39% up · n 23 · normal +0.1% | +8.9% 57% up · n 23 · normal +5.8% | +9.3% 59% up · n 22 · normal +14.9% |
| Oil | 0.0% 26% up · n 23 · normal 0.0% | +10.6% 78% up · n 23 · normal +3.3% | +26.9% 77% up · n 22 · normal +19.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.05 pts 48% up · n 23 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.34 pts 39% up · n 23 · normal -0.03 pts | +0.04 pts 50% up · n 22 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.06 pts 36% up · n 22 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.15 pts 48% up · n 23 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.63 pts 64% up · n 22 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.10 pts 57% up · n 23 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.50 pts 22% up · n 23 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.40 pts 23% up · n 22 · normal -0.60 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2024-11-26 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.1%
- 2023-06-27 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.1%
- 2020-09-09 · true for 160 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.2%
- 2013-05-15 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.8%
- 2012-04-02 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +10.7%
- 2010-12-29 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.3%
- 2010-04-26 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.2%
- 2009-08-13 · true for 66 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.6%
- 2003-08-28 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.5%
- 2002-03-18 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -25.7%
- 1999-04-08 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.8%
- 1997-10-13 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +2.8%
- 1988-06-02 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.7%
- 1986-03-18 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.2%
- 1985-01-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 1982-11-03 · true for 133 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.4%
- 1980-09-19 · true for 54 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.1%
- 1978-08-16 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.3%
- 1976-02-18 · true for 58 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.1%
- 1975-04-28 · true for 49 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.1%
- 1975-03-14 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.0%
- 1971-04-19 · true for 25 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.5%
- 1970-12-28 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.9%
- 23 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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