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What happens after mining and materials stocks fall 20% from their high?
It has happened 30 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 24 of 30 times, with a median move of +16.4%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Mining and materials more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.9% 63% up · n 30 · normal +1.1% | +16.4% 80% up · n 30 · normal +10.6% | +40.0% 80% up · n 30 · normal +30.1% |
| Gold | -0.7% 45% up · n 29 · normal +0.1% | +5.7% 63% up · n 30 · normal +5.9% | +23.3% 63% up · n 30 · normal +14.5% |
| Oil | -1.5% 14% up · n 29 · normal 0.0% | -2.5% 47% up · n 30 · normal +3.0% | +23.9% 63% up · n 30 · normal +19.6% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.04 pts 33% up · n 30 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.18 pts 43% up · n 30 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.58 pts 30% up · n 30 · normal -0.27 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.02 pts 45% up · n 29 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.96 pts 33% up · n 30 · normal +0.01 pts | -1.18 pts 40% up · n 30 · normal -0.26 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.10 pts 53% up · n 30 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.35 pts 60% up · n 30 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.60 pts 63% up · n 30 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-08-30 · true for 48 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.3%
- 2022-06-16 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.3%
- 2020-03-09 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.1%
- 2019-05-29 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.9%
- 2018-10-10 · true for 76 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.5%
- 2016-01-07 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.2%
- 2015-09-28 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.8%
- 2012-04-10 · true for 51 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.9%
- 2011-08-05 · true for 73 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 2008-09-04 · true for 252 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.8%
- 2006-07-21 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +23.7%
- 2002-09-19 · true for 113 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.9%
- 2002-07-22 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.5%
- 2001-09-20 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.1%
- 2000-09-12 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -26.3%
- 2000-06-20 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.1%
- 2000-02-25 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.6%
- 1998-08-03 · true for 134 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.9%
- 1990-10-10 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.7%
- 1988-05-09 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.0%
- 1987-10-19 · true for 100 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 1982-01-06 · true for 159 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.9%
- 1981-09-23 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.1%
- 1980-03-24 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.6%
- 1977-10-21 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.1%
- 1974-08-19 · true for 116 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.9%
- 1974-07-08 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 1971-11-19 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.1%
- 1970-04-27 · true for 84 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.4%
- 1969-07-28 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -13.8%
- 30 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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