What happened last time? › Sectors
What happens after mining and materials stocks rise 30% in six months?
It has happened 21 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 16 of 21 times, with a median move of +10.3%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Mining and materials up more than 30% over 6 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.0% 62% up · n 21 · normal +1.1% | +10.3% 76% up · n 21 · normal +10.6% | +28.2% 85% up · n 20 · normal +30.3% |
| Gold | -0.3% 48% up · n 21 · normal +0.1% | +9.6% 62% up · n 21 · normal +5.8% | +10.5% 65% up · n 20 · normal +14.9% |
| Oil | 0.0% 33% up · n 21 · normal 0.0% | +8.7% 71% up · n 21 · normal +3.3% | +24.9% 75% up · n 20 · normal +19.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.11 pts 57% up · n 21 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.14 pts 43% up · n 21 · normal -0.03 pts | +0.16 pts 55% up · n 20 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.02 pts 33% up · n 21 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.86 pts 57% up · n 21 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.88 pts 65% up · n 20 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 25% up · n 20 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.50 pts 24% up · n 21 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.35 pts 20% up · n 20 · normal -0.60 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2024-04-03 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.6%
- 2021-03-09 · true for 52 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.4%
- 2020-09-10 · true for 58 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.5%
- 2016-07-08 · true for 26 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.9%
- 2010-12-06 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.9%
- 2009-07-21 · true for 111 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.0%
- 2009-05-20 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.6%
- 2006-04-06 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.3%
- 2003-12-22 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.3%
- 2002-03-22 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -22.0%
- 1991-05-31 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.5%
- 1991-04-17 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +6.6%
- 1988-04-25 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.9%
- 1987-01-19 · true for 71 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.4%
- 1986-03-12 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 1982-11-26 · true for 104 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.9%
- 1980-09-15 · true for 46 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.7%
- 1978-08-16 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.3%
- 1976-05-11 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.1%
- 1976-03-11 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.2%
- 1975-03-31 · true for 59 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.4%
- 21 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about sectors
- What happens after chemicals and pharma stocks fall 20% from their high?
- What happens after chemicals and pharma stocks rise 30% in six months?
- What happens after consumer goods stocks fall 20% from their high?
- What happens after consumer goods stocks rise 30% in six months?
- What happens after energy stocks fall 20% from their high?
- What happens after energy stocks rise 30% in six months?
- What happens after bank and real estate stocks fall 20% from their high?
- What happens after bank and real estate stocks rise 30% in six months?