What happened last time? › Sectors
What happens after retail stocks fall 20% from their high?
It has happened 19 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 12 of 19 times, with a median move of +13.3%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Retail and wholesale more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.5% 58% up · n 19 · normal +1.1% | +13.3% 63% up · n 19 · normal +10.6% | +35.5% 84% up · n 19 · normal +30.1% |
| Gold | -1.2% 42% up · n 19 · normal +0.1% | +7.5% 58% up · n 19 · normal +5.9% | +39.4% 79% up · n 19 · normal +14.5% |
| Oil | +0.9% 53% up · n 19 · normal 0.0% | -9.3% 47% up · n 19 · normal +3.0% | +0.2% 53% up · n 19 · normal +19.6% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.06 pts 42% up · n 19 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.73 pts 37% up · n 19 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.55 pts 26% up · n 19 · normal -0.27 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.07 pts 42% up · n 19 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.69 pts 21% up · n 19 · normal +0.01 pts | -1.25 pts 32% up · n 19 · normal -0.26 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.10 pts 56% up · n 18 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.50 pts 63% up · n 19 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.60 pts 74% up · n 19 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2023-03-09 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.8%
- 2022-08-30 · true for 86 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.3%
- 2022-05-05 · true for 58 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.3%
- 2020-03-12 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +59.0%
- 2018-12-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +33.3%
- 2008-10-07 · true for 169 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.2%
- 2008-03-07 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -47.2%
- 2008-01-15 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -39.0%
- 2002-07-17 · true for 159 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.4%
- 2001-09-19 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.0%
- 2000-10-12 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.9%
- 1998-08-31 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.9%
- 1990-08-21 · true for 85 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.4%
- 1987-10-16 · true for 193 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -2.5%
- 1984-07-24 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +29.6%
- 1984-02-09 · true for 45 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.2%
- 1980-03-27 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +37.1%
- 1973-04-05 · true for 436 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.3%
- 1970-04-22 · true for 94 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.9%
- 19 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about sectors
- What happens after chemicals and pharma stocks fall 20% from their high?
- What happens after chemicals and pharma stocks rise 30% in six months?
- What happens after consumer goods stocks fall 20% from their high?
- What happens after consumer goods stocks rise 30% in six months?
- What happens after energy stocks fall 20% from their high?
- What happens after energy stocks rise 30% in six months?
- What happens after bank and real estate stocks fall 20% from their high?
- What happens after bank and real estate stocks rise 30% in six months?