What happened last time? › Sectors
What happens after retail stocks rise 30% in six months?
It has happened 19 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 13 of 19 times, with a median move of +8.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Retail and wholesale up more than 30% over 6 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.5% 53% up · n 19 · normal +1.1% | +8.6% 68% up · n 19 · normal +10.6% | +21.7% 89% up · n 18 · normal +30.3% |
| Gold | +0.5% 50% up · n 18 · normal +0.1% | +2.0% 53% up · n 19 · normal +5.8% | -0.5% 44% up · n 18 · normal +14.9% |
| Oil | -0.2% 33% up · n 18 · normal 0.0% | +8.7% 63% up · n 19 · normal +3.3% | +26.1% 72% up · n 18 · normal +19.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.02 pts 42% up · n 19 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.22 pts 58% up · n 19 · normal -0.03 pts | +0.21 pts 56% up · n 18 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.03 pts 26% up · n 19 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.03 pts 53% up · n 19 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.98 pts 67% up · n 18 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 47% up · n 19 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.30 pts 32% up · n 19 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.05 pts 28% up · n 18 · normal -0.60 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2024-03-27 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.5%
- 2020-08-25 · true for 48 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.6%
- 2009-08-24 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.6%
- 2003-08-12 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.6%
- 2002-03-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -22.3%
- 1999-03-01 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.5%
- 1998-06-22 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.1%
- 1991-03-14 · true for 96 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.7%
- 1988-06-02 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.7%
- 1988-04-25 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +16.9%
- 1987-06-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -10.6%
- 1987-03-20 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.1%
- 1986-03-12 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 1982-10-08 · true for 186 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.3%
- 1981-06-11 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.8%
- 1980-09-08 · true for 32 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.3%
- 1976-03-10 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.3%
- 1975-03-10 · true for 96 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.4%
- 1970-11-23 · true for 109 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.0%
- 19 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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