What happened last time? › Sectors
What happens after software and services stocks rise 30% in six months?
It has happened 26 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 23 of 26 times, with a median move of +10.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Services and software up more than 30% over 6 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.2% 50% up · n 26 · normal +1.1% | +10.6% 88% up · n 26 · normal +10.6% | +26.5% 85% up · n 26 · normal +30.3% |
| Gold | -0.3% 38% up · n 26 · normal +0.1% | +1.9% 54% up · n 26 · normal +5.8% | +3.7% 54% up · n 26 · normal +14.9% |
| Oil | 0.0% 42% up · n 26 · normal 0.0% | +12.9% 77% up · n 26 · normal +3.3% | +29.7% 77% up · n 26 · normal +19.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.01 pts 46% up · n 26 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.10 pts 46% up · n 26 · normal -0.03 pts | +0.20 pts 54% up · n 26 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.06 pts 35% up · n 26 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.09 pts 50% up · n 26 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.39 pts 62% up · n 26 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 38% up · n 26 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.40 pts 19% up · n 26 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.10 pts 31% up · n 26 · normal -0.60 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2023-06-15 · true for 28 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.7%
- 2021-04-28 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +2.5%
- 2020-08-27 · true for 37 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.4%
- 2019-06-21 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.0%
- 2012-04-02 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +10.7%
- 2011-02-10 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.6%
- 2010-12-29 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.3%
- 2010-01-04 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.1%
- 2009-07-21 · true for 51 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.0%
- 2009-05-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.4%
- 2003-09-02 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.2%
- 1999-12-02 · true for 73 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.7%
- 1999-02-01 · true for 57 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.7%
- 1998-06-24 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.1%
- 1997-09-19 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.3%
- 1995-07-27 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +12.5%
- 1991-02-19 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.5%
- 1987-06-22 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.3%
- 1982-10-11 · true for 179 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +26.7%
- 1980-09-19 · true for 46 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.1%
- 1978-08-23 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.5%
- 1976-02-02 · true for 45 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.7%
- 1975-05-19 · true for 39 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.9%
- 1975-03-13 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.4%
- 1972-05-01 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.4%
- 1970-12-29 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.0%
- 26 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
More about sectors
- What happens after chemicals and pharma stocks fall 20% from their high?
- What happens after chemicals and pharma stocks rise 30% in six months?
- What happens after consumer goods stocks fall 20% from their high?
- What happens after consumer goods stocks rise 30% in six months?
- What happens after energy stocks fall 20% from their high?
- What happens after energy stocks rise 30% in six months?
- What happens after bank and real estate stocks fall 20% from their high?
- What happens after bank and real estate stocks rise 30% in six months?