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What happens after tech hardware stocks fall 20% from their high?
It has happened 24 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 18 of 24 times, with a median move of +21.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Tech hardware and electronics more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +4.1% 67% up · n 24 · normal +1.1% | +21.6% 75% up · n 24 · normal +10.6% | +40.5% 83% up · n 24 · normal +30.1% |
| Gold | +1.0% 54% up · n 24 · normal +0.1% | +7.3% 58% up · n 24 · normal +5.9% | +15.4% 63% up · n 24 · normal +14.5% |
| Oil | 0.0% 46% up · n 24 · normal 0.0% | +6.9% 54% up · n 24 · normal +3.0% | +13.3% 54% up · n 24 · normal +19.6% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.01 pts 50% up · n 24 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.39 pts 38% up · n 24 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.60 pts 42% up · n 24 · normal -0.27 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.01 pts 48% up · n 23 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.71 pts 25% up · n 24 · normal +0.01 pts | -1.37 pts 33% up · n 24 · normal -0.26 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 43% up · n 23 · normal 0.00 pts | 0.00 pts 46% up · n 24 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.30 pts 63% up · n 24 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-08-29 · true for 92 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.6%
- 2022-05-09 · true for 51 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.2%
- 2020-03-12 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +59.0%
- 2018-12-19 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.9%
- 2016-02-08 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.7%
- 2011-09-30 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.3%
- 2011-08-08 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.2%
- 2008-09-09 · true for 236 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.6%
- 2008-03-10 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -43.5%
- 2004-08-11 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.1%
- 2000-10-02 · true for 645 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -26.8%
- 2000-04-14 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.8%
- 1998-10-05 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.6%
- 1998-08-31 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +37.9%
- 1991-01-07 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.3%
- 1990-08-21 · true for 61 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.4%
- 1987-10-19 · true for 242 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 1984-11-19 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.8%
- 1984-02-08 · true for 104 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.7%
- 1982-01-11 · true for 135 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.8%
- 1981-09-08 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.6%
- 1973-11-26 · true for 315 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -28.1%
- 1973-05-18 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.1%
- 1970-04-22 · true for 164 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.9%
- 24 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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