What happened last time? › Sectors
What happens after tech hardware stocks rise 30% in six months?
It has happened 31 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 25 of 31 times, with a median move of +11.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Tech hardware and electronics up more than 30% over 6 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.1% 55% up · n 31 · normal +1.1% | +11.6% 81% up · n 31 · normal +10.6% | +27.9% 83% up · n 29 · normal +30.3% |
| Gold | 0.0% 45% up · n 31 · normal +0.1% | +6.1% 61% up · n 31 · normal +5.8% | +4.0% 59% up · n 29 · normal +14.9% |
| Oil | +1.0% 55% up · n 31 · normal 0.0% | +8.7% 65% up · n 31 · normal +3.3% | +26.1% 69% up · n 29 · normal +19.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.08 pts 35% up · n 31 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.12 pts 39% up · n 31 · normal -0.03 pts | +0.01 pts 52% up · n 29 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.03 pts 42% up · n 31 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.33 pts 45% up · n 31 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.20 pts 55% up · n 29 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 29% up · n 31 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.40 pts 32% up · n 31 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.00 pts 28% up · n 29 · normal -0.60 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2024-10-18 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.6%
- 2024-03-21 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.1%
- 2023-06-16 · true for 24 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.2%
- 2020-08-25 · true for 106 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +30.6%
- 2020-02-12 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.9%
- 2019-06-24 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.3%
- 2012-03-22 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.8%
- 2012-02-17 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +11.6%
- 2011-02-09 · true for 18 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.4%
- 2009-07-21 · true for 80 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.0%
- 2009-06-01 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +13.6%
- 2003-07-28 · true for 94 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.9%
- 2002-03-21 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -22.3%
- 1999-11-18 · true for 137 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.0%
- 1999-08-27 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.7%
- 1999-01-26 · true for 64 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.1%
- 1997-09-16 · true for 29 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.6%
- 1997-01-13 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.4%
- 1995-05-23 · true for 79 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.3%
- 1991-07-10 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.2%
- 1991-03-07 · true for 53 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.6%
- 1987-02-04 · true for 73 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.8%
- 1986-03-14 · true for 31 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.5%
- 1983-06-14 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.1%
- 1982-11-30 · true for 88 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.1%
- 1980-09-11 · true for 80 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.2%
- 1978-07-27 · true for 52 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.6%
- 1976-02-19 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.9%
- 1975-03-14 · true for 90 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.0%
- 1972-05-01 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.4%
- 1971-01-05 · true for 54 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.3%
- 31 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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