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What happens after telecom and media stocks fall 20% from their high?
It has happened 17 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 9 of 17 times, with a median move of +12.8%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Telecom and media more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +3.0% 65% up · n 17 · normal +1.1% | +12.8% 53% up · n 17 · normal +10.6% | +36.6% 76% up · n 17 · normal +30.1% |
| Gold | -0.9% 41% up · n 17 · normal +0.1% | +2.6% 59% up · n 17 · normal +5.9% | +33.1% 71% up · n 17 · normal +14.5% |
| Oil | 0.0% 47% up · n 17 · normal 0.0% | -4.4% 35% up · n 17 · normal +3.0% | +17.0% 65% up · n 17 · normal +19.6% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.12 pts 41% up · n 17 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.14 pts 59% up · n 17 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.31 pts 41% up · n 17 · normal -0.27 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.10 pts 56% up · n 16 · normal -0.01 pts | -1.07 pts 12% up · n 17 · normal +0.01 pts | -1.90 pts 18% up · n 17 · normal -0.26 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | +0.10 pts 65% up · n 17 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.60 pts 71% up · n 17 · normal -0.30 pts | +1.00 pts 88% up · n 17 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2023-05-25 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.8%
- 2023-03-07 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.1%
- 2022-04-22 · true for 182 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.2%
- 2022-03-07 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.1%
- 2022-01-26 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.7%
- 2020-03-12 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +59.0%
- 2008-06-11 · true for 295 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -29.2%
- 2008-01-17 · true for 60 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -36.2%
- 2000-07-27 · true for 682 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.8%
- 2000-05-19 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.2%
- 1990-08-21 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.4%
- 1987-11-30 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.6%
- 1987-10-19 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 1974-11-21 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +31.3%
- 1974-07-05 · true for 68 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.8%
- 1973-11-20 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -31.2%
- 1970-05-20 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +37.8%
- 17 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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