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What happens after utility stocks fall 20% from their high?
It has happened 15 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 7 of 15 times, with a median move of -3.3%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Utilities more than 20% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.7% 60% up · n 15 · normal +1.1% | -3.3% 47% up · n 15 · normal +10.6% | +10.5% 87% up · n 15 · normal +30.1% |
| Gold | 0.0% 47% up · n 15 · normal +0.1% | +6.0% 67% up · n 15 · normal +5.9% | +16.8% 67% up · n 15 · normal +14.5% |
| Oil | -1.7% 33% up · n 15 · normal 0.0% | +8.7% 67% up · n 15 · normal +3.0% | +74.4% 80% up · n 15 · normal +19.6% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.09 pts 27% up · n 15 · normal -0.01 pts | -1.01 pts 33% up · n 15 · normal -0.02 pts | -0.85 pts 20% up · n 15 · normal -0.27 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.02 pts 50% up · n 14 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.35 pts 53% up · n 15 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.07 pts 40% up · n 15 · normal -0.26 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 33% up · n 15 · normal 0.00 pts | +0.20 pts 53% up · n 15 · normal -0.30 pts | +0.10 pts 53% up · n 15 · normal -0.50 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-06-24 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +39.9%
- 2020-03-12 · true for 39 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +59.0%
- 2008-09-17 · true for 224 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.9%
- 2002-05-16 · true for 237 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -14.0%
- 2002-01-22 · true for 29 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -21.5%
- 2001-09-24 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.4%
- 2000-02-24 · true for 9 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -7.9%
- 1999-12-10 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.3%
- 1994-09-12 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.7%
- 1994-06-21 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.5%
- 1994-05-11 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +18.8%
- 1987-10-19 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +24.3%
- 1974-04-24 · true for 177 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.7%
- 1973-11-19 · true for 29 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -32.3%
- 1970-05-21 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +40.0%
- 15 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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