What happened last time? › Sectors
What happens after utility stocks rise 30% in six months?
It has happened 10 times since 1968. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 7 of 10 times, with a median move of +10.1%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +10.6%, up 74% of the time.
Sector: Utilities up more than 30% over 6 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.9% 80% up · n 10 · normal +1.1% | +10.1% 70% up · n 10 · normal +10.6% | +15.7% 80% up · n 10 · normal +30.3% |
| Gold | +0.6% 60% up · n 10 · normal +0.1% | -2.7% 50% up · n 10 · normal +5.8% | +8.0% 70% up · n 10 · normal +14.9% |
| Oil | +0.8% 50% up · n 10 · normal 0.0% | +10.2% 70% up · n 10 · normal +3.3% | +24.4% 80% up · n 10 · normal +19.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.02 pts 50% up · n 10 · normal -0.01 pts | +0.06 pts 50% up · n 10 · normal -0.03 pts | -0.03 pts 50% up · n 10 · normal -0.29 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.18 pts 20% up · n 10 · normal -0.01 pts | -1.81 pts 20% up · n 10 · normal -0.01 pts | -0.79 pts 40% up · n 10 · normal -0.28 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 30% up · n 10 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.40 pts 40% up · n 10 · normal -0.30 pts | -1.50 pts 30% up · n 10 · normal -0.60 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-09-21 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +32.7%
- 2009-09-03 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.1%
- 2000-12-26 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -12.6%
- 2000-08-23 · true for 38 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -22.8%
- 1986-03-14 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.5%
- 1983-02-04 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.1%
- 1980-09-25 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: -12.4%
- 1975-06-03 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.9%
- 1975-02-21 · true for 23 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.6%
- 1970-12-29 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.0%
- 10 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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