What happened last time? › Economy
What happens during a recession (NBER dates, known only afterwards)?
It has happened 30 times since 1885. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 6 of 15 times, with a median move of -3.0%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +9.4%, up 69% of the time.
in a recession (NBER dates, known only afterwards). Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -1.2% 33% up · n 15 · normal +1.1% | -3.0% 40% up · n 15 · normal +9.4% | +18.0% 67% up · n 15 · normal +25.7% |
| Gold | 0.0% 44% up · n 9 · normal 0.0% | +2.7% 56% up · n 9 · normal +2.9% | +10.7% 78% up · n 9 · normal +10.4% |
| Oil | 0.0% 33% up · n 9 · normal 0.0% | -1.2% 33% up · n 9 · normal 0.0% | +8.9% 56% up · n 9 · normal +8.9% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.06 pts 64% up · n 11 · normal +0.01 pts | -0.42 pts 36% up · n 11 · normal +0.09 pts | -0.20 pts 36% up · n 11 · normal +0.06 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.29 pts 60% up · n 20 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.21 pts 35% up · n 20 · normal -0.00 pts | -1.70 pts 30% up · n 20 · normal -0.04 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.05 pts 25% up · n 12 · normal 0.00 pts | +1.85 pts 100% up · n 12 · normal -0.20 pts | +1.50 pts 75% up · n 12 · normal -0.40 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2020-02-03 · true for 62 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.8%
- 2007-12-03 · true for 397 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -42.4%
- 2001-03-01 · true for 188 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -8.8%
- 1990-07-02 · true for 188 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.0%
- 1981-07-01 · true for 359 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -16.2%
- 1980-01-02 · true for 148 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.4%
- 1973-11-01 · true for 355 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -31.4%
- 1969-12-01 · true for 254 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -6.2%
- 1960-04-01 · true for 229 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.4%
- 1957-08-01 · true for 189 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.6%
- 1953-07-01 · true for 229 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.5%
- 1948-11-01 · true for 283 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -3.0%
- 1945-02-01 · true for 213 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +38.1%
- 1937-05-01 · true for 350 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -40.5%
- 1929-08-01 · true for 1082 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -27.4%
- 1926-10-01 · true for 350 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1923-05-01 · true for 377 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1920-01-02 · true for 472 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1918-08-01 · true for 197 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1914-12-12 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1913-01-02 · true for 473 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1910-01-03 · true for 621 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1907-05-01 · true for 353 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1902-09-02 · true for 600 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1899-06-01 · true for 474 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1895-12-02 · true for 477 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1893-01-03 · true for 454 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1890-07-01 · true for 277 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1887-03-01 · true for 351 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 1885-02-16 · true for 87 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 30 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
More about economy
- What happens when real GDP is smaller than a year ago?
- What happens when real GDP grows more than 5% in a year?
- What happens when industrial production is lower than a year ago?
- What happens when retail sales are lower than a year ago?
- What happens when housing starts fall 30% in a year?
- What happens when consumer sentiment is below 60?
- What happens when consumer sentiment is below 55?
- What happens when the money supply (M2) shrinks over a year?