What happened last time? › Crypto
What happens after Bitcoin doubles in three months?
It has happened 9 times since 2012. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 8 of 9 times, with a median move of +11.3%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +14.5%, up 85% of the time.
Bitcoin up more than 100% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.7% 89% up · n 9 · normal +1.5% | +11.3% 89% up · n 9 · normal +14.5% | +27.2% 100% up · n 9 · normal +35.0% |
| Gold | -0.2% 44% up · n 9 · normal +0.3% | -5.0% 33% up · n 9 · normal +5.1% | +16.6% 67% up · n 9 · normal +18.5% |
| Oil | -5.2% 33% up · n 9 · normal +0.5% | +17.0% 78% up · n 9 · normal -1.8% | -20.6% 33% up · n 9 · normal +2.1% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.02 pts 44% up · n 9 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.72 pts 78% up · n 9 · normal +0.26 pts | +0.44 pts 56% up · n 9 · normal +0.50 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.18 pts 38% up · n 8 · normal +0.03 pts | +0.26 pts 78% up · n 9 · normal -0.09 pts | -0.63 pts 33% up · n 9 · normal +0.26 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.05 pts 0% up · n 8 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.90 pts 11% up · n 9 · normal -0.40 pts | -1.30 pts 22% up · n 9 · normal -1.20 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2021-10-18 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -17.1%
- 2020-12-17 · true for 72 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +24.1%
- 2019-05-13 · true for 43 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +2.1%
- 2017-10-10 · true for 61 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +9.2%
- 2017-05-22 · true for 42 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.8%
- 2015-12-15 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +10.3%
- 2013-10-21 · true for 73 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.3%
- 2013-02-07 · true for 90 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.1%
- 2012-08-03 · true for 17 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.9%
- 9 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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