What happened last time? › Crypto
What happens when Bitcoin hits an all-time high?
It has happened 17 times since 2012. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 15 of 16 times, with a median move of +15.0%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +14.3%, up 85% of the time.
Bitcoin: % below its all-time high above -0.01. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.7% 76% up · n 17 · normal +1.5% | +15.0% 94% up · n 16 · normal +14.3% | +28.7% 100% up · n 12 · normal +35.5% |
| Gold | +1.9% 65% up · n 17 · normal +0.2% | +1.8% 50% up · n 16 · normal +4.7% | +21.3% 67% up · n 12 · normal +17.3% |
| Oil | +1.8% 59% up · n 17 · normal +0.4% | +19.0% 69% up · n 16 · normal -2.4% | -18.1% 25% up · n 12 · normal +0.6% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.02 pts 53% up · n 17 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.70 pts 69% up · n 16 · normal +0.23 pts | +0.17 pts 58% up · n 12 · normal +0.47 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.10 pts 69% up · n 16 · normal +0.03 pts | +0.52 pts 63% up · n 16 · normal -0.13 pts | -0.74 pts 33% up · n 12 · normal +0.25 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.05 pts 44% up · n 16 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.65 pts 25% up · n 16 · normal -0.40 pts | -2.25 pts 17% up · n 12 · normal -1.20 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-10-06 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-07-10 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.6%
- 2025-05-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +27.4%
- 2024-11-06 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.3%
- 2024-03-04 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.6%
- 2021-10-19 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -18.2%
- 2021-04-13 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +7.4%
- 2021-02-08 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.5%
- 2020-11-24 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +29.3%
- 2017-10-12 · true for 22 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.5%
- 2017-08-07 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.2%
- 2017-04-26 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.7%
- 2017-02-23 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.2%
- 2013-11-06 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.7%
- 2013-01-16 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +25.3%
- 2012-07-13 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +23.8%
- 2012-01-03 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.5%
- 17 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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