What happened last time? › Crypto
What happens after Ether falls 75% from its all-time high?
It has happened 5 times since 2015. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 5 of 5 times, with a median move of +16.0%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +14.8%, up 86% of the time.
Ether more than 75% below its all-time high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +3.5% 100% up · n 5 · normal +1.6% | +16.0% 100% up · n 5 · normal +14.8% | +56.4% 100% up · n 5 · normal +39.3% |
| Gold | -2.1% 20% up · n 5 · normal +0.6% | +7.8% 80% up · n 5 · normal +11.0% | +42.6% 80% up · n 5 · normal +35.7% |
| Oil | -11.5% 40% up · n 5 · normal +1.0% | -11.0% 40% up · n 5 · normal +2.4% | -1.6% 40% up · n 5 · normal +17.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.07 pts 60% up · n 5 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.49 pts 60% up · n 5 · normal +0.41 pts | +1.12 pts 60% up · n 5 · normal +0.72 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.27 pts 75% up · n 4 · normal +0.04 pts | -1.30 pts 40% up · n 5 · normal -0.02 pts | +2.19 pts 60% up · n 5 · normal +0.58 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 0% up · n 5 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.10 pts 40% up · n 5 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.60 pts 60% up · n 5 · normal 0.00 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-11-09 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 2022-06-16 · true for 16 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.3%
- 2020-09-08 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.5%
- 2018-08-10 · true for 497 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.0%
- 2015-10-20 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.6%
- 5 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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