What happened last time? › Crypto
What happens after Ether falls 20% in a week?
It has happened 31 times since 2015. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 25 of 29 times, with a median move of +14.3%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +14.8%, up 86% of the time.
Ether down more than 20% over a week. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.4% 68% up · n 31 · normal +1.6% | +14.3% 86% up · n 29 · normal +14.8% | +41.4% 100% up · n 25 · normal +39.3% |
| Gold | +1.1% 55% up · n 31 · normal +0.6% | +6.7% 76% up · n 29 · normal +11.0% | +31.7% 96% up · n 25 · normal +35.9% |
| Oil | +2.0% 58% up · n 31 · normal +1.0% | -3.9% 48% up · n 29 · normal +2.4% | +13.2% 60% up · n 25 · normal +17.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | +0.02 pts 52% up · n 31 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.44 pts 66% up · n 29 · normal +0.41 pts | +0.77 pts 64% up · n 25 · normal +0.72 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.04 pts 53% up · n 30 · normal +0.04 pts | -0.30 pts 41% up · n 29 · normal -0.02 pts | +0.65 pts 56% up · n 25 · normal +0.56 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 24% up · n 29 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.20 pts 31% up · n 29 · normal -0.20 pts | +0.10 pts 52% up · n 25 · normal 0.00 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-06-05 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2026-02-03 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-04-08 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +36.1%
- 2025-02-07 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +15.0%
- 2024-08-05 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.5%
- 2024-03-19 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +9.6%
- 2022-11-09 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 2022-09-21 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +14.3%
- 2022-06-13 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 2022-05-09 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.2%
- 2022-01-21 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.7%
- 2021-06-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.9%
- 2021-05-19 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.2%
- 2021-02-25 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.5%
- 2020-09-08 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +35.5%
- 2020-03-12 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +59.0%
- 2019-09-26 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.8%
- 2019-07-15 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +6.1%
- 2018-11-19 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 2018-08-10 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.0%
- 2018-06-13 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.2%
- 2018-03-19 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.4%
- 2018-01-16 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -5.8%
- 2017-09-08 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.7%
- 2017-06-26 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.6%
- 2016-12-05 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +19.3%
- 2016-08-01 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.1%
- 2016-06-20 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.0%
- 2016-04-11 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.3%
- 2016-02-18 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +22.6%
- 2015-08-21 · true for 12 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.8%
- 31 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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