What happened last time? › Crypto
What happens after Bitcoin falls 50% from its 1-year high?
It has happened 9 times since 2012. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 6 of 8 times, with a median move of +10.4%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +14.3%, up 85% of the time.
Bitcoin more than 50% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.0% 89% up · n 9 · normal +1.5% | +10.4% 75% up · n 8 · normal +14.3% | +29.3% 100% up · n 8 · normal +35.5% |
| Gold | -1.9% 22% up · n 9 · normal +0.2% | -4.0% 25% up · n 8 · normal +4.7% | +8.1% 50% up · n 8 · normal +17.3% |
| Oil | -4.7% 22% up · n 9 · normal +0.4% | -22.3% 38% up · n 8 · normal -2.4% | -43.7% 25% up · n 8 · normal +0.6% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.02 pts 33% up · n 9 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.20 pts 50% up · n 8 · normal +0.23 pts | -0.17 pts 38% up · n 8 · normal +0.47 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.08 pts 22% up · n 9 · normal +0.03 pts | -0.74 pts 25% up · n 8 · normal -0.13 pts | -0.55 pts 38% up · n 8 · normal +0.25 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.10 pts 22% up · n 9 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.90 pts 13% up · n 8 · normal -0.40 pts | -1.80 pts 38% up · n 8 · normal -1.20 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-06-05 · true for 11 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2022-05-09 · true for 206 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.2%
- 2021-07-16 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.7%
- 2020-03-12 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +59.0%
- 2018-02-01 · true for 277 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.1%
- 2014-08-13 · true for 270 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.0%
- 2014-02-24 · true for 44 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.5%
- 2013-12-18 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +13.8%
- 2013-04-11 · true for 100 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.0%
- 9 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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