What happened last time? › Crypto
What happens after Ether falls 50% from its 1-year high?
It has happened 12 times since 2015. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 10 of 11 times, with a median move of +14.9%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +14.8%, up 86% of the time.
Ether more than 50% below its 1-year high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.7% 75% up · n 12 · normal +1.6% | +14.9% 91% up · n 11 · normal +14.8% | +42.2% 100% up · n 10 · normal +39.3% |
| Gold | +0.9% 58% up · n 12 · normal +0.6% | +4.0% 82% up · n 11 · normal +11.0% | +18.4% 100% up · n 10 · normal +35.7% |
| Oil | +6.5% 67% up · n 12 · normal +1.0% | +7.1% 64% up · n 11 · normal +2.4% | +28.8% 80% up · n 10 · normal +17.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.01 pts 42% up · n 12 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.45 pts 64% up · n 11 · normal +0.41 pts | +0.73 pts 70% up · n 10 · normal +0.72 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.04 pts 42% up · n 12 · normal +0.04 pts | +0.66 pts 55% up · n 11 · normal -0.02 pts | +0.51 pts 60% up · n 10 · normal +0.58 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 33% up · n 12 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.30 pts 27% up · n 11 · normal -0.20 pts | -0.60 pts 40% up · n 10 · normal 0.00 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-02-02 · true for 138 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2025-03-10 · true for 37 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.8%
- 2022-05-09 · true for 219 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +3.2%
- 2021-06-21 · true for 15 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.9%
- 2020-03-12 · true for 21 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +59.0%
- 2019-08-30 · true for 46 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.9%
- 2018-03-13 · true for 319 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.6%
- 2017-07-11 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.4%
- 2016-11-11 · true for 41 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.3%
- 2016-07-07 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +15.6%
- 2016-04-28 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +14.9%
- 2015-09-14 · true for 54 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +8.9%
- 12 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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