What happened last time? › Crypto
What happens after Bitcoin falls 75% from its all-time high?
It has happened 3 times since 2012. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 2 of 3 times, with a median move of +16.0%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +14.3%, up 85% of the time.
Bitcoin more than 75% below its all-time high. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.0% 67% up · n 3 · normal +1.5% | +16.0% 67% up · n 3 · normal +14.3% | +77.8% 100% up · n 3 · normal +35.5% |
| Gold | +5.1% 100% up · n 3 · normal +0.2% | +14.6% 67% up · n 3 · normal +4.7% | +51.2% 100% up · n 3 · normal +17.3% |
| Oil | -14.5% 33% up · n 3 · normal +0.4% | -11.0% 33% up · n 3 · normal -2.4% | +23.8% 67% up · n 3 · normal +0.6% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.27 pts 0% up · n 3 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.21 pts 67% up · n 3 · normal +0.23 pts | -0.01 pts 33% up · n 3 · normal +0.47 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | -0.46 pts 0% up · n 3 · normal +0.03 pts | -0.82 pts 0% up · n 3 · normal -0.13 pts | +0.88 pts 67% up · n 3 · normal +0.25 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 0% up · n 3 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.10 pts 33% up · n 3 · normal -0.40 pts | +0.60 pts 67% up · n 3 · normal -1.20 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2022-11-09 · true for 19 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 2018-11-20 · true for 89 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +17.7%
- 2015-01-05 · true for 182 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.2%
- 3 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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