What happened last time? › Crypto
What happens after Ether doubles in three months?
It has happened 10 times since 2015. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 8 of 10 times, with a median move of +15.9%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +14.9%, up 86% of the time.
Ether up more than 100% over 3 months. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.2% 80% up · n 10 · normal +1.6% | +15.9% 80% up · n 10 · normal +14.9% | +33.0% 100% up · n 9 · normal +39.2% |
| Gold | +2.7% 60% up · n 10 · normal +0.6% | +6.8% 70% up · n 10 · normal +10.8% | +26.4% 89% up · n 9 · normal +37.2% |
| Oil | -3.5% 30% up · n 10 · normal +1.1% | +16.3% 70% up · n 10 · normal +2.2% | +69.1% 67% up · n 9 · normal +15.0% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.02 pts 30% up · n 10 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.43 pts 80% up · n 10 · normal +0.42 pts | +1.18 pts 78% up · n 9 · normal +0.70 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.19 pts 78% up · n 9 · normal +0.04 pts | +1.03 pts 70% up · n 10 · normal -0.09 pts | +1.96 pts 67% up · n 9 · normal +0.50 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.05 pts 20% up · n 10 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.55 pts 30% up · n 10 · normal -0.20 pts | -1.10 pts 11% up · n 9 · normal 0.00 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-07-16 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.3%
- 2021-10-15 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -19.9%
- 2020-12-28 · true for 85 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +28.1%
- 2020-08-10 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +32.0%
- 2020-06-11 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +41.5%
- 2019-06-21 · true for 7 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.0%
- 2019-05-15 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +0.1%
- 2017-12-12 · true for 49 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -0.5%
- 2017-03-01 · true for 120 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +11.8%
- 2016-01-13 · true for 92 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +20.1%
- 10 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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