What happened last time? › Crypto
What happens after Bitcoin falls 20% in a week?
It has happened 24 times since 2012. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 19 of 23 times, with a median move of +12.6%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +14.3%, up 85% of the time.
Bitcoin down more than 20% over a week. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.9% 75% up · n 24 · normal +1.5% | +12.6% 83% up · n 23 · normal +14.3% | +34.0% 100% up · n 23 · normal +35.5% |
| Gold | +0.9% 58% up · n 24 · normal +0.2% | -1.6% 43% up · n 23 · normal +4.7% | +11.4% 74% up · n 23 · normal +17.3% |
| Oil | +1.8% 54% up · n 24 · normal +0.4% | -3.9% 43% up · n 23 · normal -2.4% | +7.6% 52% up · n 23 · normal +0.7% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.01 pts 50% up · n 24 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.24 pts 65% up · n 23 · normal +0.23 pts | +0.27 pts 57% up · n 23 · normal +0.47 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.18 pts 58% up · n 24 · normal +0.03 pts | -0.44 pts 43% up · n 23 · normal -0.13 pts | -0.34 pts 48% up · n 23 · normal +0.25 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | 0.00 pts 21% up · n 24 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.50 pts 17% up · n 23 · normal -0.40 pts | -1.30 pts 30% up · n 23 · normal -1.20 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2026-02-05 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: –
- 2022-06-13 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 2022-05-11 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +5.0%
- 2021-06-21 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -10.9%
- 2021-05-17 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -1.8%
- 2021-01-21 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +14.1%
- 2020-03-12 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +59.0%
- 2019-09-27 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +11.4%
- 2019-07-16 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +7.4%
- 2018-11-19 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.0%
- 2018-03-12 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +0.3%
- 2017-12-22 · true for 8 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -9.9%
- 2017-09-14 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +16.4%
- 2017-01-11 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +21.6%
- 2016-06-23 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +15.4%
- 2015-11-11 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +4.5%
- 2015-01-14 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -4.4%
- 2014-08-18 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +6.3%
- 2014-03-31 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +10.4%
- 2013-12-11 · true for 5 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.2%
- 2013-07-03 · true for 2 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +22.9%
- 2013-04-11 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +14.0%
- 2012-08-20 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 2012-02-14 · true for 3 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +12.6%
- 24 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
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